Interest rate forecast Australia: the big four scorecard
What do the big four banks forecast for interest rates?
The RBA cash rate is 4.60% after the 29 September 2026 rise. The next decision is due on 3 November 2026. As at 6 October 2026, Ratesniffers records each big four bank's latest cash rate call from the bank's own site: NAB forecasts a hold at the next meeting, and CommBank, Westpac see the first cut no earlier than August 2027. Ratesniffers does not forecast rates; it records what the banks publish and checks each call against what the RBA did.
Each bank's current call, with its source
| Bank | Current published call | Published | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| CommBank | Expected the 29 September rise to 4.60%; now sees 50 basis points of cuts in 2027, the first in August 2027 and another in November 2027. Belinda Allen, Head of Australian Economics | 21 September 2026 | Bank's own site |
| NAB | Cash rate to stay on hold at the 3 November meeting, peaking at 4.60%, while noting the risk that further tightening may be required; core inflation back in the target band by the end of 2027. NAB Group Economics | 30 September 2026 | Bank's own site |
| Westpac | Expected the 29 September rise to 4.60%, with a risk of a follow-up rise if inflation stays elevated; rate cuts still expected to begin from August 2027. Luci Ellis, Chief Economist | 21 September 2026 | Bank's own site |
| ANZ | No cash rate forecast published on ANZ's own site since its 7 May 2026 extended-hold call. Industry press has reported a November rise call since 27 August; it is not recorded here until ANZ publishes it. ANZ Research | 7 May 2026 | Bank's own site |
A call is listed only once the bank has published it on its own site, and it stays listed until the bank updates it, so a dated call can lag the bank's view as reported elsewhere. The RBA's own 29 September 2026 statement said the Board would lift the cash rate further if needed (rba.gov.au).
Scorecard: published calls against the 2026 RBA decisions
For each 2026 decision, what each bank had published on its own site beforehand, and what the RBA did. Ratesniffers began recording published calls in mid 2026, so the earlier decisions show no recorded call rather than a wrong one.
| RBA decision | Outcome | CommBank | NAB | Westpac | ANZ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 September 2026 | Rise of 25 basis points to 4.60% | Rise to 4.60% (call brought forward from November on 21 September) (correct) | Rise to 4.60% (call made 27 August) (correct) | Rise to 4.60% (call brought forward from November on 21 September) (correct) | Hold at 4.35% (last call on ANZ's own site, 7 May) (not updated) |
| 5 May 2026 | Rise of 25 basis points to 4.35% | No change recorded | No change recorded | No change recorded | No change recorded |
| 17 March 2026 | Rise of 25 basis points to 4.10% | No change recorded | No change recorded | No change recorded | No change recorded |
| 3 February 2026 | Rise of 25 basis points to 3.85% | No change recorded | No change recorded | No change recorded | No change recorded |
Scored decisions so far: 1. Correct published calls: CommBank 1 of 1, NAB 1 of 1, Westpac 1 of 1, ANZ 0 of 1. This page is updated after each RBA decision and whenever a bank publishes a new call.
Frequently asked
Will interest rates go up again in Australia in 2026?
As at 6 October 2026, none of the big four banks publishes a forecast of another rise at the 3 November 2026 RBA meeting on its own site: NAB forecast a hold, and the others have not published a November call. The RBA itself said on 29 September 2026 it would lift the cash rate further if needed. Ratesniffers records the banks' calls; it does not make its own forecast.
When will interest rates go down in Australia?
CommBank, Westpac forecast the first cut in 2027, with August 2027 the earliest date any of them publishes, as read on their own sites on 6 October 2026. Bank forecasts change with each inflation release.
Which bank has been right about the RBA in 2026?
For the 29 September 2026 decision, CommBank, NAB and Westpac each published a call for a rise to 4.60% before the meeting, and the RBA delivered it. ANZ's last call on its own site was a hold. Ratesniffers began recording published calls in mid 2026, so earlier 2026 decisions show no recorded call.
Cite as “Ratesniffers big four rate forecast scorecard, 6 October 2026, ratesniffers.com.au/insights/rate-forecast-scorecard”. Each call links to the bank's own publication; RBA outcomes link to the RBA's own decision statements.
General information only. Bank forecasts are the banks' own views and change with new data. Nothing here takes your objectives, financial situation or needs into account.