Interest rate predictions Australia 2026

When are the RBA's remaining 2026 board meetings?

As at 2 October, two Monetary Policy Board meetings remain in 2026: 2 and 3 November, and 7 and 8 December, as listed by the Reserve Bank. Each decision is issued at 2.30 pm on the second day, and any change to the cash rate target takes effect the following day.

Source: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html, checked 2026-10-02.

Will home loan rates go down in 2026?

There is no certain answer for the rest of 2026. The RBA announced a 25 basis point increase on 29 September, taking the cash rate target to 4.60% from 30 September. That is a past decision, not a guarantee of the next one. A bank forecast is an estimate and can change before the November or December meeting.

The cash rate and a home loan rate are different. Lenders set their own variable rates and can change them for reasons other than an RBA decision. A fixed rate stays unchanged for its agreed fixed period; rates offered on new fixed loans can differ from an existing fixed contract.

What has the RBA cash rate done in 2026?

The cash rate started 2026 at 3.60% and was lifted by 25 basis points at three consecutive board meetings, 3 February, 17 March and 5 May, taking it to 4.35% p.a., a rise of 0.75 percentage points through May. The Monetary Policy Board then held the cash rate at 4.35% at its 16 June 2026 meeting, and held again at its 11 August meeting, before lifting it a fourth time on 29 September 2026, a 25 basis point rise to 4.60% p.a.

An RBA change does not guarantee an identical change to every home loan. Check the lender's announced rate, effective date and your loan terms rather than assuming a particular amount or timing of pass-through.

What did the big four banks forecast before the September decision?

The table below preserves bank calls recorded before the 29 September decision for context. It is not a refreshed October forecast comparison. Check the publication date, assumptions and latest primary-source update before relying on any prediction; a past call that matched a decision does not establish what happens next.

Bank forecasts shift as fresh inflation data lands. Treat any single call as a working assumption, not a guarantee, and re-check each bank's own site closer to your own fixed-rate decision.

Should I fix my rate now if a cut is further away?

If the market genuinely isn't pricing a cash rate cut until 2027, a fixed rate taken out today may not be meaningfully cheaper than one taken out closer to an actual cut, and it locks you out of any variable-rate fall if the RBA moves sooner than forecast. The trade-off is repayment certainty now against flexibility later, and it comes down to how much a further rate rise would strain your budget versus how much you value being free to switch the moment variable rates do fall.

A split loan combines fixed and variable portions. Each portion can have different rates, fees and features, so compare the combined cost and restrictions rather than assuming the split will save money.

What should I do with my home loan while I wait?

Waiting on a cash rate cut isn't the only point to review. Compare your current rate with like-for-like rows using the same purpose, repayment type, rate type and LVR, then include switching costs and the remaining loan term. A dated verified snapshot can show the rate gap, but it does not prove refinance eligibility or an individual saving.