RBA Rate Holds at 4.6%: What Borrowers Need to Know Now
Bendigo Bank's chief economist expects no rate relief before 2027, as Westpac warns the standard variable rate may soon top 9%.
The Reserve Bank of Australia's official cash rate sits at 4.6% — the highest level since 2011 — after four increases in just eight months. If you're wondering whether relief is on the horizon, the short answer from economists is: not any time soon.
According to Australian Broker, Bendigo Bank's October 2026 Economic Update forecasts the cash rate will remain on hold through November and December — provided upcoming jobs and inflation figures don't deliver any major surprises. Bendigo Bank chief economist David Robertson was direct: borrowers "should not anticipate rapid easing in the near term." The RBA wants consumer price inflation back below 3% during 2027, and Robertson says there needs to be "a lot more progress with inflation before rates can be lowered."
That is a long road. For the millions of Australian households currently carrying a mortgage, now is the time to take stock.
Why the Rate Cycle Has Not Ended
Robertson's October update traces the RBA's position to a confluence of pressures that aren't easily unwound.
High global oil prices and record diesel costs have collided with a tight labour market, strong government spending, and weak productivity growth. The Australian dollar has slipped back below 70 US cents on expectations of higher US interest rates in 2027. Share markets, however, keep setting records — a signal Robertson attributes to confidence that a global technology investment boom will eventually translate into productivity gains.
The net picture is an economy where enough inflationary pressure remains for the RBA to hold its ground. Getting consumer price inflation back below 3% is a 2027 goal at the earliest.
Not everyone thinks the hold will last. Westpac forecasts a further increase at the RBA's 2–3 November board meeting. Under that scenario, Westpac expects the standard variable mortgage rate to exceed 9% for the first time since 2008. That would place a generation of borrowers who entered the market during the low-rate era into territory most have never navigated before.
What the Numbers Mean for Australian Households
The strain on household budgets is no longer an abstraction — it shows up clearly in the data.
Property prices are softening across parts of the market. Transport costs climbed after temporary fuel excise relief ended in August. Household spending has stalled. Robertson described "a growing strain on family budgets across Australia," with consumer confidence now more than 12% lower than a year earlier.
The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell 4.7% to 80.4 in October — well below the neutral level of 100 and a reading that reflects real household anxiety about the future.
The mortgage market has already registered the shift. Just over 80% of people surveyed after the RBA's latest decision said they expect mortgage rates to keep rising over the next year. In September, that figure was 63%. When more than four in five borrowers expect further pain, the psychology of the market shifts — spending pulls back, property decisions get deferred, and refinancing interest picks up.
What You Should Do Right Now
The hold at 4.6% is a window. Whether rates move again in November or stay flat through year-end, the case for reviewing your home loan is the same: four rate rises in eight months means many borrowers are now paying significantly more than a year ago, and not all of them are on the most competitive rate currently available.
Start with a repayment check. Use the repayment calculator to see exactly what your current loan is costing each month — and what the figures look like if Westpac's November scenario plays out.
Then compare the market. The refinance savings calculator lets you see how your current rate stacks up against competitive alternatives. Even a difference of 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points on a large loan adds up to thousands of dollars a year.
For those currently shopping for a home loan, softening property prices have created some offset to higher borrowing costs in parts of the market. The cheapest home loans comparison shows which lenders are currently competitive on rate.
For property investors who may be facing a potential 9% standard variable rate, now is the time to revisit your cash-flow modelling. The investor home loans comparison is worth a close look — some lenders remain more competitive than others in a rising-rate environment, and a well-structured loan can make a material difference to your numbers.
The Bottom Line
Bendigo Bank's Robertson has drawn a clear line: rate cuts require sustained progress on inflation, and that progress won't arrive until well into 2027. Westpac is even less optimistic about the short term, forecasting one more rise before year-end. For borrowers, the message is consistent across the forecasting spectrum — don't wait for rates to rescue your budget. The best move is to understand your current position and act on it while you have the time.