Another RBA Rate Rise in November Is Now Plausible
The cash rate hit a 15-year high of 4.6% in September. A former RBA board member says another move before year's end is 'plausible'.
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate to 4.6 per cent at its September meeting — the highest level in 15 years and the fourth increase in eight months. Now, according to former RBA board member Professor Ian Harper, another move before Christmas is not off the table.
Speaking at a Centre for Independent Studies lunchtime event in Sydney this week, Professor Harper offered a direct assessment of the November outlook.
"The bank moving again before the end of the year is plausible, from what I can see of the circumstances," Harper told the audience.
In a subsequent interview, he declined to call another move "likely," but the market is already pricing in roughly a one-in-three chance of a further rise at the November meeting — the first Tuesday of the month, coinciding with Melbourne Cup Day.
As ABC News reports, Professor Harper served on the RBA board for a decade from 2016, stepping down after the August meeting — just one month before the September rate increase that pushed rates to their current 15-year high.
What a November Rise Would Mean for Your Repayments
For borrowers on variable-rate home loans, a further 25 basis points would add meaningfully to monthly repayments on top of a series of increases that have already squeezed household budgets. A November move would flow directly through to borrowers' repayments within weeks.
To stress-test what your repayments would look like under a higher-rate scenario, use the repayment calculator to model different outcomes before your lender writes to you.
If you haven't reviewed your interest rate in the past year, now is the time. Many borrowers on older variable-rate products are paying significantly more than competitive rates available on the market. Check our cheapest home loans page for current pricing.
Inside the RBA Boardroom: What Harper Revealed
Professor Harper offered a rare account of how the RBA reaches its decisions. The process now runs over two days: board members convene at 1pm on the Monday, receive staff briefings, and have the opportunity to ask questions. The governor often takes an informal straw poll at the end of the first day to gauge where the board stands before members go off and think about it overnight.
"The meeting starts at 9[am] and you run through to 11:30," Harper explained. "And in that process, of course, there's further discussion, the decision gets made, the statement gets drafted, the draft gets considered, discussed and agreed."
That decision, along with the accompanying statement, is published at 2:30pm Sydney time, followed by a press conference from the governor at 3:30pm.
Harper also revealed how often the board actually disagrees. Before the RBA began publishing vote tallies from its July 2025 meeting onwards, split votes were more common than the public knew. "About 30 per cent of the time it was a split vote," he said. "70 per cent of the time all the members are agreeing with whatever the [RBA staff] recommendation was."
Since vote tallies began being published, there have been eight unanimous decisions and three split votes — suggesting the current tightening cycle has been more contested than it might appear.
Is a Pause More Likely Than Another Hike?
Not everyone agrees with Harper's assessment. Bendigo Bank chief economist David Robertson said recent economic data pointed toward a pause rather than a further move.
"Recent economic indicators have highlighted a growing strain on family budgets across Australia, with household spending remaining flat, the ending of the temporary fuel excise relief in August driving transport costs higher and softening residential property prices," Robertson said.
"Unless upcoming employment or inflation data deliver major surprises, we anticipate the cash rate will remain on hold at 4.6 per cent through November and December."
Property market data adds further context. Cotality reported that the combined capital city auction clearance rate fell to 45.4 per cent last week — its lowest level since July — with 1,212 auctions held, 38.1 per cent fewer than the same time last year. Melbourne and Sydney together held 710 fewer auctions than a year ago, with Melbourne's clearance rate at 50.4 per cent and Sydney at 49.3 per cent.
A weakening property market is typically one of the mechanisms through which higher rates slow the economy. If the RBA is watching for evidence that its monetary policy is working, the clearance rate data suggests it may already have its answer.
What Borrowers Should Do Before November
Whether or not the RBA moves in November, rates are unlikely to fall quickly, and borrowers need to plan accordingly.
**Explore refinancing.** If you haven't compared your current rate against what's on the market recently, use our refinance savings calculator to see what switching could save you each month. Borrowers who haven't refinanced in two or more years may be paying hundreds of dollars more per month than necessary.
**Consider fixing part of your loan.** With market pricing suggesting roughly a one-in-three chance of another November move, there is a case for locking in at least some of your borrowing on a fixed rate. A broker can help you weigh current fixed-rate offers against your variable rate and advise on split-loan structures that hedge both outcomes.
**Act before the meeting, not after.** The RBA's decision lands at 2:30pm Sydney time on the first Tuesday in November. If you're uncertain about your exposure, talk to a broker beforehand rather than reacting once the decision is made.