Sixth Straight Price Drop Opens Door for First Home Buyers
National home values are down 5.2% from their March peak, with 97% of capital city suburbs falling — but brokers say opportunity is knocking.
Australia's Housing Correction Reaches Six Consecutive Months
National property values fell 1.1% in September, marking the sixth straight monthly decline and leaving home prices 5.2% below their March peak, according to Cotality's Home Value Index. Australian Broker has the details of Cotality's latest data, and the numbers show a downturn that is broad, deep, and still accelerating in some cities.
Brisbane led the monthly falls at -1.5%, with Sydney close behind at -1.4%. Adelaide fell -1.3%, Perth -1.2%, and Canberra -1.1%. Melbourne dropped -0.7% and Hobart -0.5%. Only Darwin bucked the trend, rising 0.4% for the month.
Over the September quarter, the falls were steeper. Sydney dropped 4.9%, with Brisbane and Perth both down 4.7%. Melbourne fell 3.4%, Canberra 3.2%, Adelaide 2.7%, and Hobart 1.2%. Darwin again was the exception, up 0.5% for the quarter.
The breadth of the downturn is as notable as its depth. Tim Lawless, Cotality's executive research director for Asia-Pacific, noted that 97% of Australia's capital city suburbs recorded a decline in value over the three months to September — "highlighting the broad-based scope of this negative housing cycle".
What the Data Means for Buyers Right Now
The market mechanics have shifted in ways that matter for prospective buyers. New listings fell 9.2% year-on-year as sellers hold back, yet the total volume of unsold stock is up 23.1% compared with a year ago. Homes are simply taking longer to sell. The median days on market for capital city properties is now 39 days, up from 23 days a year ago. Westpac has separately reported a 17% year-on-year drop in transaction volumes, reflecting a market where both sides are hesitating.
That hesitation is working in buyers' favour. Brisbane mortgage broker Luke Ashby from Emerge Finance told Australian Broker that the dynamics have shifted dramatically. "It was definitely a sellers' market previously. But it's now definitely a buyers' market," he said.
Ashby cited a telling example: a home in Brisbane's Griffin suburb listed for $1.35 million in April 2026 recently sold for $900,000. "That's a massive difference in price, which is actually helping first-time homebuyers," he said. The price reduction also brought the property back under $1 million — directly within reach of the federal government's 5% deposit scheme. "Previously, that property in Griffin wasn't able to be bought under the government 5% deposit scheme," Ashby explained. "But now that you're able to get a house for under $1 million, it's opened up that door."
The First Home Buyer Opportunity — and Its Limits
Falling prices and reduced competition have created conditions that first home buyers haven't seen for years. But the opportunity comes with real constraints, and understanding them matters before acting.
The primary constraint is borrowing capacity. Four consecutive RBA rate hikes in 2026 have reduced how much banks will lend. Rising rates erode borrowing power, which partly offsets the advantage of lower asking prices — particularly for buyers without a large deposit. Use the borrowing power calculator to understand how your capacity has shifted in the current environment.
For those who can get finance, the advice from brokers is clear: don't wait for the bottom of the market. "The ones who actually realise that it's a great opportunity in the market right now are the ones that are winning, because they're able to take action," Ashby said. "They can take their time, find the right property and negotiate with agents. The tables have really turned."
It's also uncertain how long this window will last. Cotality's Tim Lawless has assessed an overall decline of 10 to 15% from peak as "a fairly reasonable estimate", which would put values at roughly early 2024 levels. But Ashby's view is that momentum can reverse quickly once sentiment shifts. "Once confidence picks up, a few more people start to enter the market again," he said. "Then I think everyone will flood back in and we'll see competition increase and prices pick back up."
For first home buyers looking to make the most of current conditions, explore first home buyer loan options and compare the cheapest home loans now available.