RBA Set to Hold Rates in August: What Borrowers Need to Know

All 37 economists surveyed expect the RBA to keep the cash rate at 4.35% on 10–11 August, as inflation finally shows signs of cooling.

The RBA meets on 10 and 11 August 2026, and for the first time in months, there is genuine consensus in the market: the cash rate is staying put. A poll conducted by ABC News of 37 leading Australian economists found that every single one expects the Reserve Bank to leave the official cash rate unchanged at 4.35%.

That kind of unanimity is rare. It tells you something important: despite inflation still running above the RBA's 2–3% target band, the case for a further rate rise just isn't there right now.

What the Inflation Data Actually Shows

The June Consumer Price Index brought the RBA some breathing room. Headline CPI rose 3.8% in June, down from 4% in May and below the RBA's own forecast of 4%. ANZ economists noted in a market briefing this week that while they expect the board "to retain a hawkish bias and keep open the possibility of further tightening", the June data was enough to justify holding firm.

But there are pressure points that haven't resolved. Trimmed-mean inflation — the measure the RBA watches most closely because it strips out the most volatile price swings — came in at 3.6%, unchanged from the year leading to May. It has been above the 2–3% target band for well over 12 months.

Property Update analysis flagged some significant subsector numbers: electricity is up 21.6% over the year, gas up 7.8%, and tobacco up 11.6%. These aren't market-driven rises — they largely reflect government policy decisions around energy pricing and regulation. Rent and housing costs are up 3–6%. Recreation and holiday travel is up 7.5%, likely a mid-year seasonal spike, but still another data point showing consumer spending hasn't slowed as sharply as hoped.

Making matters more complex for borrowers in the coming months: the fuel excise, which had been halved, expired this week. Property Update noted that fuel prices in Brisbane jumped from around $2 to roughly $2.50 a litre almost overnight. The "down 6.6%" figure for fuel that appeared in the June CPI data will very likely reverse sharply in the next read, pushing headline CPI back up.

The Jobs and Wages Picture

Unemployment held steady at 4.4% in June, unchanged from May — a reading that cuts both ways. Stable employment means most borrowers can keep meeting their mortgage repayments. But it also means ongoing labour market pressure that feeds through into services inflation.

ANZ specifically called out construction as a structural concern: "The construction pipeline has reached a record high, raising the risk that competition for scarce resources keeps construction-related inflation elevated even as broader inflation moderates." That is a warning worth heeding for anyone watching building costs or rental supply.

On wages, the picture is quietly difficult. Wage growth was 0.8% for the three months to June, with annual growth at 3.1%. But CPI rose 3.8% over the same 12 months. That gap means real wages are still going backwards — household purchasing power is declining even as pay packets technically grow.

What a Hold Means for Your Mortgage Right Now

David Bassanese, chief economist at Betashares Capital, told ABC News that futures markets were pricing in "virtually zero chance" of a rate rise at this meeting. The better-than-expected Q2 CPI, combined with the ongoing housing price downturn, makes a hold the clear call.

Bianca Patterson, a mortgage broker and finance specialist at Perth-based Calculated Lending, put it plainly when speaking to Australian Broker this week: "While borrowers would welcome some interest rate relief, there has not yet been enough time to see the full effect of the three consecutive rate rises, followed by the decision to hold in June. Holding rates again would give the economy more time to absorb those increases and give the RBA a clearer view of their impact before making its next decision."

That is the right framing. Three hikes earlier this year pushed the cash rate from a lower base to 4.35%, and the full effect of those increases is still flowing through to mortgage repayments and household spending.

ANZ expects rates to hold for the remainder of 2026 as inflationary pressures ease and unemployment edges up slightly. That does not mean cuts are imminent — the board will maintain a tightening bias, meaning the next move could still be upward if inflation surprises.

In the meantime, this period of stability is a practical window to check whether your current rate is still competitive. After three hikes, variable rate gaps between lenders have widened, and some borrowers are sitting on rates that no longer reflect what is available in the market. Compare the current cheapest home loan rates to see where you stand.

If you are on a fixed rate expiring in the next 6 to 12 months, now is the time to run the numbers. Rolling off a fixed rate below 3% onto today's variable rates is a genuine shock to monthly repayments — use the refinance savings calculator to model the difference and decide whether locking in a new rate or staying variable makes more sense for your situation.