NAB and ANZ Raise Fixed Rates Before RBA September Call
Nine lenders have lifted fixed rates this month as markets price a 76% chance of the RBA hiking the cash rate to a 15-year high on 29 September.
With the Reserve Bank of Australia's September board meeting just days away, the fixed-rate market is sending a clear signal: lenders expect another cash rate hike. NAB and ANZ have each raised their fixed home loan rates by up to 0.20 percentage points, joining eight other lenders that have moved in September alone. It is the kind of collective repricing that has historically preceded RBA increases.
NAB and ANZ Move First Among the Big Four
Australian Broker reports that NAB's one-year fixed rate rose from 6.44% to 6.59%, while its two-, three-, four-, and five-year terms each increased by 0.15 percentage points. ANZ's changes were similarly broad-based, with its two-year fixed rate jumping 0.20 percentage points to 6.49%.
Those adjustments bring both banks' advertised entry-level fixed rates to 6.49%. CBA and Westpac hold more competitive fixed pricing among the major banks at 6.34%, though both sit comfortably above their respective variable rates of 6.09% and 5.99%.
The moves are not confined to the big four. ING lifted its fixed rates by 0.20 percentage points, taking its advertised offer to 6.39%. Macquarie made a similar move the previous week, also landing at 6.39%. Police Credit Union is advertising a one-year fixed rate of 5.79%, while Police Bank is offering 5.84% for a three-year term — both well below the majors, and worth considering for borrowers open to looking beyond the large banks.
In total, nine lenders have raised their fixed home loan rates in September 2026, according to Australian Broker.
Variable Rates Still Hold the Edge
Despite the wave of fixed-rate increases, variable loans remain meaningfully cheaper across the market. The gap helps explain why uptake of fixed products has stayed thin: CBA's full-year results show just 7% of new lending in the six months to June 2026 went to fixed-rate products. Across lenders offering both loan types, variable rates represent the more competitively priced option for the overwhelming majority of borrowers.
For borrowers willing to look outside the big four, lower fixed pricing is available. Police Credit Union was advertising a one-year fixed rate of 5.79%, while Police Bank offered 5.84% for a three-year term — a meaningful gap compared with the major banks' current fixed offerings.
That said, the current spread between fixed and variable rates is not a permanent feature of the market. Fixed rates tend to rise ahead of anticipated cash rate increases and can close quickly once the RBA moves. For borrowers weighing up whether to lock in a competitive rate, the comparison needs to account for break costs, extra repayment restrictions, and whether your loan has offset account access — not just the headline rate difference.
All Four Major Banks Now Expect Another Hike
The banks' own forecasting provides the clearest available signal of where the September meeting may land. CBA, Westpac and ANZ each expect the RBA to hike the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points in November, while NAB has broken from the group, tipping the move will arrive at the 29 September board meeting itself.
Financial markets are pricing in a 76% probability of the cash rate rising to 4.6% at the September meeting — a 15-year high if confirmed.
The foundation for those expectations is persistent core inflation. The Australian Bureau of Statistics' most recent Consumer Price Index release showed annual headline inflation easing to 3.5% for the 12 months to July 2026. However, the RBA's preferred trimmed mean measure — which strips out volatile price movements — held at 3.6% for a second consecutive month, offering little relief for those hoping the bank would stay on hold.
For comparison, in the lead-up to the RBA's last cash rate rise in May 2026, 60 banks raised their fixed rates in the preceding month alone. September's nine lenders represent a smaller number, but the direction of movement — led by major banks — follows a familiar pre-hike pattern.
What Borrowers Should Consider Now
If you are currently on a variable rate and haven't reviewed your loan in the past six months, this is a sensible moment to check your current repayments and understand how a 0.25 percentage point hike would affect your monthly budget. On a $750,000 loan over 25 years, that kind of increase typically adds around $120 a month — meaningful on its own, and compounding if further hikes follow.
Locking into a fixed rate is not automatically the wrong move, but borrowers considering it should weigh the break cost exposure and flexibility trade-offs against the current rate difference. Variable rates from most lenders still sit below fixed alternatives, so the case to fix depends more on budget certainty than on securing a better rate.
If your existing loan is no longer competitive with the broader market, reviewing your refinance options before the next RBA decision is worth doing. A broker can help model the potential savings from switching and assess whether your current loan structure still suits your financial position. With 29 September approaching, there is still time to get organised before the RBA hands down its next decision.