NAB and ANZ Lift Fixed Rates Ahead of RBA September Call
Nine lenders have raised fixed home loan rates in September as markets price an 88% chance of a cash rate hike on 29 September.
Two of Australia's biggest banks have lifted fixed home loan rates in a move that signals growing market confidence the Reserve Bank will raise the cash rate before the month is out.
NAB and ANZ both increased fixed rates by as much as 0.20 percentage points on 17 September, pushing both banks' lowest advertised fixed rates to 6.49%, according to MPA Australia. The moves follow similar hikes from ING and Macquarie the week prior, bringing the total number of lenders to raise fixed rates in September to nine.
What Changed and Why It Matters
NAB's one-year fixed rate climbed from 6.44% to 6.59%, while its two-, three-, four-, and five-year rates each rose 0.15 percentage points. ANZ's changes were similarly broad-based, with its two-year fixed rate jumping 0.20 percentage points to 6.49%.
The hikes follow a run of similar moves. ING lifted its fixed rates by 0.20 percentage points the day prior, taking its lowest offer to 6.39%, while Macquarie made a similar move the previous week, also landing at 6.39%.
Financial markets are now pricing an 88% probability of an RBA cash rate increase at the 29 September board meeting. That sentiment intensified after the US Federal Reserve voted unanimously overnight to raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, taking US rates to 4.00%.
When lenders expect the RBA to lift the official cash rate, the funding costs tied to fixed-rate loans typically move in step. The fixed-rate hikes we're seeing right now are banks effectively pricing in what they think is coming — regardless of whether the RBA follows through on the day.
Variable Rates Remain the Cheaper Option
Despite the fixed-rate moves, variable home loans remain significantly cheaper for most borrowers.
Among the big four, CBA and Westpac hold the lowest fixed rates at 6.34%, but both still sit well above their variable offers of 6.09% and 5.99% respectively, MPA Australia reports. That gap helps explain why 90% of lenders' lowest advertised rates are variable, and why only 7% of new CBA lending in the six months to June 2026 went to fixed-rate products.
Smaller lenders continue to undercut the major banks on fixed pricing. Police Credit Union is currently offering 5.79% for a one-year fixed loan, with Police Bank at 5.84% for a three-year term.
To see where rates stand right now, take a look at our cheapest home loans comparison or run the numbers with our repayment calculator.
Where the Big Four Think Rates Are Heading
All four major banks now agree the RBA's next move will be a rate rise — they just disagree on when.
CBA, Westpac, and ANZ are tipping a 0.25 percentage point increase in November, while NAB has broken ranks, forecasting the hike will land at the RBA's 29 September meeting.
Behind that split sits one stubborn data point: the Australian Bureau of Statistics' latest Consumer Price Index showed annual headline inflation easing to 3.5% in the 12 months to July 2026, while the RBA's preferred trimmed mean measure held at 3.6% for a second consecutive month. Core inflation is not improving.
"Core inflation has not gone down in the last eight monthly datasets," a data insights expert was quoted as saying by MPA Australia.
The scale of September's fixed-rate moves is still modest compared with past cycles. In the month leading up to the RBA's last cash rate rise in May, 60 lenders lifted fixed rates. This time, nine have moved. Banks are pricing in a hike, but doing so cautiously.
What Should Borrowers Do Right Now?
The answer depends on your situation, but here is what I'd be advising borrowers to consider right now.
**If you're on a variable rate**, don't rush to fix. Variable rates remain cheaper than fixed across the board, and locking in at 6.49% or above when you can sit on a variable rate of 5.99%–6.09% means paying more today in exchange for rate certainty. That trade-off only stacks up if rate rises are going to be large and fast — and that is not the prevailing expectation.
**If you're considering refinancing**, now is a good time to compare what you're actually paying against what's available in the market. Many borrowers are sitting on rates well above what's being advertised. Use our refinance savings calculator to see how much switching could save you.
**If your fixed rate is expiring soon**, start conversations with your broker or lender now. Borrowers rolling off fixed terms in the next six months will be moving onto a variable rate that may rise further. Understanding your options takes time — don't leave it until the last week.
**If you're a first home buyer**, fixed rates above 6.49% may feel daunting, but smaller lenders are still offering sub-6% options on shorter terms. Comparing beyond the big four is where the value often sits. Explore our first home buyer loan options for a full picture.
The next twelve days will be pivotal for Australian borrowers. With the RBA meeting on 29 September and governor Michele Bullock set to face parliamentary questions on the economy, the direction of rates should become clearer shortly. Borrowers who understand their options now will be better placed to act quickly when that decision lands.