CBA Boss: Rate Hikes Likely Over, but November Stays Live
CBA's Matt Comyn believes the RBA is probably done raising rates — but whether November confirms that depends on one crucial inflation reading.
Australia's biggest bank is calling what may be the end of the rate cycle — but with a caveat every borrower should take seriously.
Commonwealth Bank chief executive Matt Comyn has said he believes the RBA has made its last interest rate increase for this cycle. But in an interview reported by ABC News, he was careful to flag that the board's November meeting "is live" and another rise remains possible depending on the next round of inflation data.
"We believe that's the last [rate rise], but certainly I think the last meeting of this calendar year is live," Comyn told the ABC's Alan Kohler.
The RBA lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.6% on 29 September — its fourth increase this calendar year. Comyn attributed the September hike to persistent inflationary pressures driven by the Middle East conflict and elevated fuel costs, forces he believes are real but possibly nearing their peak.
What the November Meeting Hinges On
The next quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is due at the end of October. The RBA board meets on 3 November. That sequence matters.
If inflation data surprises to the upside, another 25 basis point increase to 4.85% becomes a live possibility. If it confirms the disinflation trend, most analysts expect the board to hold — and potentially begin cutting through 2027.
For variable-rate borrowers, the practical implication is clear: now is the time to understand exactly what each scenario means for your repayments. A repayment calculator can model both outcomes side by side so you know your full range before the data drops.
Comyn acknowledged that Australian households are feeling the strain of the current rate environment. CBA is seeing an increase in customers requiring financial assistance or struggling to meet repayments, particularly those exposed to variable-rate mortgages and higher living costs. Different cohorts are experiencing the cycle differently — some are cutting spending, others drawing down savings.
Business lending, by contrast, was a relative bright spot: CBA recorded 13% growth in business lending across the 2026 financial year, and doubtful debts remain well below where the bank would typically expect them at this point in the cycle, partly because unemployment remains low.
Arrears and Buffers: The National Picture
The broader mortgage market picture is more reassuring than the headlines might suggest. MPA Australia, reporting on the RBA's October 2026 Financial Stability Review, found that arrears have edged higher but remain near pre-pandemic levels.
The median mortgage holder could currently cover more than a year of scheduled repayments from offset and redraw accounts at current rates — a stronger buffer than borrowers held before COVID-19. Only around 2% of variable-rate owner-occupier borrowers have income that falls short of their repayments plus essential living costs. Most of those borrowers could manage the gap from savings for at least six months.
These numbers predate the 29 September rate rise, so some additional pressure through the December quarter is expected. But the baseline is solid relative to what many feared a year ago.
Property Prices: Weaker Now, Stronger Later?
Comyn was direct about what the rate environment is doing to property values. When rates last peaked in 2023, national house prices fell 8.2% nationally. Current forecasts point to an estimated 10% decline from the most recent peak. Cotality data already shows national home values fell 1.1% in September, leaving them 5.2% below their March 2026 high.
Comyn's longer-term view is more optimistic. He expects prices to recover as rates ease through 2027, underpinned by what he describes as a "structural undersupply of housing." Housing represents around 57% of household wealth in Australia. The long-term demand fundamentals have not changed; it is the current cost of carrying debt that is doing the damage in the short term.
What You Should Be Doing Right Now
The rate cycle is not necessarily over — October's CPI data will be the deciding factor. But the conditions for a considered mortgage review are arguably better now than they have been in two years.
Variable-rate holders should check whether their lender's rate has kept pace with recent cash rate movements — or whether a competitive refinance could save them materially before the next RBA decision.
Buyers sitting on the sidelines may find this period worth revisiting. Prices are softer, buyer competition is lower, and the rate outlook is at least stabilising. Checking current home loan options now, before sentiment shifts, positions you well.
Investors should reassess serviceability — particularly if rental yields have not kept pace with rate rises over the past 18 months. Use a borrowing power calculator to understand your current position before making any portfolio decisions.
The CBA chief's assessment — that we are probably at or near the peak of this rate cycle — is as close to a positive signal as the market is likely to receive before 3 November.