All Major Banks Tip RBA Rate Rise on 29 September
With all four major banks forecasting a September hike, borrowers need to prepare for higher repayments before month's end.
The Reserve Bank board meeting on 29 September 2026 is just days away, and for the first time this cycle, all four of Australia's major banks are aligned on the outcome: each expects a 25-basis-point increase to the official cash rate.
The Adviser reports that as at 21 September, the ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures October 2026 contract was trading at 95.43 — implying an 88 per cent market probability of a rate rise, which would take the cash rate to 4.60 per cent. That is not a marginal shift. It is near-consensus among both institutional forecasters and financial markets.
The shift in expectations was driven by rising oil prices linked to Middle East tensions and increasingly direct inflation messaging from RBA governor Michele Bullock, who offered no signals of a pause during a recent Sydney speech.
What a rate rise means for your repayments
For borrowers on variable-rate home loans, the impact is immediate once a lender passes the move on — and the major lenders have historically done so in full within days.
The Adviser puts the figures plainly: for a household with a $600,000 home loan, a 25-basis-point increase adds close to $100 to monthly repayments if passed on in full. On its own, that is an uncomfortable but manageable change for many households.
But this is not the first rise of this cycle, and it may not be the last. ANZ is currently the only major bank forecasting back-to-back rate increases — a September rise followed by a further hike in November — which would take the cash rate to 4.85 per cent. That is a level Australia has not seen since 2008. The cumulative repayment impact across multiple increases is substantially larger than any single move.
Rate rises also reduce borrowing capacity. According to The Adviser, a 25-basis-point rise takes around $13,000 off what a $600,000-loan household can borrow. For first home buyers in major cities already stretched to the edge of their serviceability, that reduction can push a property just out of reach. Use our borrowing power calculator to see where you stand before making any offer.
What borrowers should do now
There is still time to act, and there are practical steps worth considering regardless of the board's eventual decision.
**Review your existing rate.** If you have been on a variable rate and have not compared your loan against the market recently, do so now. Lenders have repriced at different rates through this cycle, and some borrowers are sitting on rates materially above what is available. Compare the cheapest rates on the market to see how yours stacks up.
**Understand your refinancing position.** If your rate is uncompetitive, the question is whether you can actually refinance. Given APRA's 3-percentage-point serviceability buffer, some borrowers — particularly those who borrowed near their maximum — may find the assessment rate has risen enough to prevent a switch. A broker can model your position before you spend time on an application.
**Don't lock in to fix based on news headlines.** When four major banks publicly forecast rises, that expectation is already priced into fixed rates. Fixing now means locking in a rate that reflects the market's view of where rates are going — not getting ahead of it. A break-even analysis, run by a broker, is the only meaningful way to assess whether fixing is right for your loan.
**If you are a first home buyer:** MFAA chief executive Anja Pannek, as reported by The Adviser, described the challenge precisely: "For a first home buyer, a rate rise isn't just about higher repayments. It can also affect borrowing capacity. As interest rates rise, the rate lenders use to assess serviceability generally rises too, which can reduce how much a buyer is able to borrow." A home that fits the budget today may sit just out of reach after 29 September. Visit our first home buyer hub for guidance on navigating the current environment.
The MFAA notes that in the June 2026 quarter, a record 81.6 per cent of new residential home loans were written through mortgage brokers, according to Cotality data. In a market moving quickly, that figure reflects the value Australians are placing on professional help.
The outlook beyond 29 September
The questions that matter most are not settled by one meeting. If ANZ's forecast of back-to-back increases is correct, 4.85 per cent becomes the new ceiling to plan around. Both current and former treasurers have pointed this week to global fiscal dynamics — escalating sovereign debt and higher long-term global interest rates — as forces that leave the RBA with limited room to ease in the near term.
The practical takeaway is straightforward: plan for rates to remain higher for longer, not for an early reversal. If you have not reviewed your home loan recently, use our refinance savings calculator to model what a better rate could save across your remaining term.
The board meets on 29 September. The most useful thing you can do before then is know your borrowing position — and speak to a broker about what your options look like under the higher scenario.