All Four Big Banks Now Tip an RBA Rate Hike Before Year-End
Brokers say the market is moving on more than rate expectations alone — but with the cash rate already at 4.35%, another rise would sting.
For much of 2026, the question hanging over Australia's property market has been what the Reserve Bank of Australia does next. But brokers working with borrowers on the ground say there is more shaping activity right now than monetary policy alone.
Australian Broker spoke with brokers across Brisbane and Melbourne this week, and the picture they described was a market driven by multiple, overlapping forces — not one simply waiting on the next cash rate call.
"I don't know if the momentum is really rate-driven. I think it's just market-driven," said Adam Bradley, founder and director at Brisbane-based Emerge Finance.
That doesn't mean rates are irrelevant. The RBA has already raised the official cash rate three times in 2026, bringing it to its current level of 4.35%. The next decision lands on 29 September, and the pressure to act again is building.
What the Major Banks Are Forecasting
All four of Australia's major banks are now forecasting at least one more rate hike before the end of the year. National Australia Bank is tipping a move at the September meeting — less than two weeks away. Westpac, ANZ and Commonwealth Bank of Australia have all placed their forecasts at November.
RBA Chief Economist Sarah Hunter, speaking at a Regional Australia Institute summit in Canberra, told the audience that ongoing inflationary pressures and the conflict in the Middle East make Australia's economic situation "challenging." That language does not point to rate cuts on the near-term horizon.
For borrowers on variable rates, the prospect of a September or November hike represents a live financial concern. Three hikes in 2026 have already added meaningful cumulative pressure to household budgets. If you haven't reviewed your rate or looked at what the current market is offering, our refinance savings calculator is a practical starting point for working out whether your existing deal is still competitive — or whether switching could reduce your monthly exposure before any further moves.
What Borrowers Are Actually Doing
The broker survey by Australian Broker reveals a market segmented in meaningful ways right now, with different groups of borrowers behaving in very different ways.
**First-home buyers** remain active — and in some markets are finding better conditions than they faced 12 months ago. Bradley reported that his Brisbane first-home buyer clients are noting softer prices and less competition at open homes. "You finally have no competition and the prices have softened to maybe January or February prices, or even prior to that. So it's a pretty good time to get in," he told Australian Broker. Melbourne broker Adele Andrews, director at Australian Property Home Loans, echoed this: "I'm still seeing a strong appetite for first-time homebuyers. Funnily enough, that market remains very hot." Explore current home loan options for first-home buyers to understand what is available given current lending conditions.
**Upgraders** are another segment showing renewed activity, driven by a different calculation. Bradley reported a meaningful increase in enquiries from owners considering a move rather than a renovation. "The cost of doing that at the moment is exorbitant," he explained, referring to renovation expenses. With more stock available to look at and less competition from investors, upgrading is looking more attractive relative to the cost and disruption of improving an existing home.
**Investors**, by contrast, have pulled back noticeably. Budget changes to negative gearing have reduced investment activity. Adele Andrews noted that confidence had dropped broadly since the May budget: "The budget spooked everyone, whether it be investors or owner occupiers. I mean, there is a lack of confidence in the market." For investors, the combination of higher rates, changed negative gearing rules and the incoming CGT reforms from 1 July 2027 has made the investment equation more complex than it was 18 months ago.
**The cautious majority** — households sitting on the sidelines — are well represented in the experience of Melbourne-based Blank Financial. Founder and CEO Bernard Desmond described a lag in the volume of incoming enquiries. "Customers and buyers are not in any rush now. Unlike previously, when they had a fear of missing out. But now people are quite happy to wait and see how it all plays out," he said. It is a reactive market, he noted, and one where brokers need to be more proactive to stay in front of existing clients.
What to Do Before 29 September
The RBA meeting is close. With NAB calling a September move and the other three majors not far behind in their November forecasts, borrowers who have not reviewed their home loan in the past 12 months should consider doing so now.
The window between today and the next rate decision is a practical one for assessing whether your current rate is still competitive. Our home loan comparison can show you how your rate sits against what other lenders are currently offering. If the spread is meaningful, a refinance conversation with a broker is worth having before market conditions shift further.
For first-home buyers who have been sitting on their approval or their savings, the current environment — softer prices in some markets, reduced competition, and a brief window before potential further rate rises tighten serviceability — is worth taking seriously.
The broker channel continues to be where most Australians access home loans. According to MPA Australia, brokers facilitated a record 81.6% of all new residential home loans nationally in the June 2026 quarter. In an environment where bank pricing and lending policy are shifting regularly, an independent broker assessment of the options available to you is particularly valuable.
Rate uncertainty is real. But as the brokers in this survey made clear, the market is moving on more than the cash rate alone — and the opportunity or the risk in your specific situation is shaped by your circumstances, not the headline.