Rate Hold Tipped as RBA Opens June 2026 Meeting

Most brokers and major bank economists expect the RBA to pause this week — but several warn further hikes remain firmly on the table.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has opened its June 2026 board meeting on monetary policy, with the nation's borrowers watching closely for any signal on the direction of interest rates. The mood among brokers and bank economists is cautious but broadly aligned: a hold at this meeting is the most likely outcome, but nobody is ruling out another hike before the year is out.

If you have been feeling the squeeze on your mortgage repayments, you are not alone. Australia is currently navigating a landscape cluttered with competing pressures — persistent inflation, a slowing economy, rising wages, looming tax changes affecting capital gains and negative gearing, and continued global uncertainty. The RBA must weigh all of it at once.

What Australia's Major Banks Are Forecasting

The big four banks are sending mixed — but cautiously consistent — signals heading into this meeting. National Australia Bank reversed its earlier position earlier this month, now predicting the RBA's next move would most likely be to hold rates, though it stopped short of indicating when any future cuts might arrive. ANZ and Commonwealth Bank are aligned, both expecting the central bank to stay on the sidelines with a hold for now.

Westpac's view is the most hawkish. The bank sees a hold as the most likely near-term outcome but has not ruled out another rate hike later in 2026, potentially as soon as August. That is a meaningful hedge — and one that borrowers on variable rates should consider when deciding whether to [review their current home loan rate](/home-loans/cheapest).

The backdrop is an economy that is growing slowly. Darren Davis, head of sales at fintech platform Quickli, described current conditions as "the slowest growth since COVID and the 2008 financial crisis." Quickli's data shows that people's incomes have risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months — but that gain is being eroded by rising fuel, food, rent, and services costs. The RBA has already raised interest rates three times recently, and Davis argues that pausing now "gives the economy time to adjust to the changes already made, and lets the RBA see the real impact before making any more moves."

What Brokers Around the Country Are Saying

Australian Broker spoke to mortgage professionals across Australia ahead of the June meeting. The consensus leans toward a hold — but the nuance in those views reflects real conditions on the ground.

Marissa Schulze, founder and director at Adelaide-based Rise High Financial Solutions, captures the ambivalence many brokers feel: "The general consensus is that we might see another interest rate rise. But it's hard to say, because the RBA may hold given everything — given the fact that the announcement of the budget has kind of slowed things down a little bit. But we still potentially have an inflation problem."

Matthew Posselt, owner and senior broker at Perth-based Elite Finance Australia, was more definitive: "The RBA will probably hold at the moment. They'll just wait for things to settle a bit after the whole negative gearing, CGT and everything else."

Paul Katranis, founder and director at Adelaide's SA Wealth brokerage, described what many are observing at the lending coalface: "What I've seen lately is how the increases and also the budget changes have all hit in one, and really taken a toll on consumers. There's still activity out there, but the fringe buyers and transactions are starting to wane away." Katranis added a point that matters most from a policy timing perspective: "The RBA doesn't know where things are going to land in terms of the proposed changes. So most likely I would think they'll hold."

Sam Ayliffe, principal and broker at Sydney-based Astute Financial Management, struck a cautiously optimistic note: "The RBA will probably, more than likely, hold, and wait until more dust settles. And then we'll hopefully see them drop later in the year." He also flagged a trend many brokers in major cities are tracking: "Auction clearance rates are really falling off a cliff."

Not everyone sees a hold as certain. Suvidh Arora, co-founder and co-CEO at Melbourne-based 42 Property, warned: "Potentially, there could be a rate rise, especially given what's been happening in the market, and the RBA has obviously shown an appetite to try and keep everything under control."

Nick Chong, co-founder and managing director at digital home loan platform Rateseeker, captured the broader shift in market sentiment: "Just a few months ago, markets were preparing for more rate hikes, whereas now the conversation is gradually shifting towards when cuts may eventually arrive. The reality is there may still be bumps in the road ahead."

What Borrowers Should Do Right Now

The prevailing view is that June represents a breathing pause in the rate cycle — not the end of it. Whether you are on a variable rate or approaching the end of a fixed term, now is the time to make sure your home loan is still working hard for you.

If the RBA holds, it gives borrowers a brief window of stability. Use it to [check your borrowing power](/calculators/borrowing-power) and speak to a broker about whether your current lender is still offering a competitive rate. With major banks forecasting divergent outcomes over the second half of 2026, the gap between the best and worst variable rates in the market can make a real difference to your household budget.

The RBA will release its decision and a monetary policy statement following the conclusion of this board meeting. Watch for language around inflation expectations and the labour market — those will be the clearest signals about where rates are headed for the remainder of 2026.

Australian Broker reports from across the country on broker and bank predictions for the June 2026 RBA meeting. Read the [full report from Australian Broker](https://www.brokernews.com.au/news/breaking-news/rba-kicks-off-latest-meeting-on-monetary-policy-289507.aspx).